The proliferation of ADAS systems will not sharply influence, at least in the short term, the revenue of bodywork repair garages. However, factors such as distance traveled, growth of the vehicle fleet, or the more common presence of the mentioned ADAS in vehicles, amongst others, will result in widespread changes. By 2030, there will be a 15% decrease in the number of accidents, a 23% reduction in repairs, a 19% decline in parts value, and a 17% drop in total market value, according to ICDP, an organization specialized in automotive industry research.
However, at least in the mid-term, changes will not drastically affect the industry on a global level. Another study by Global Market Insights predicts a compound annual growth rate of more than 3% between 2018 and 2024. A growth rate that would increase to over 4% in the same period regarding body repaint products.
This way, according to this report, the increase in the number of multi-brand and authorized garages offering high quality services with the lowest cost and the appropriate warranties will be the backbone of industry growth for the next five years. In the same way, the rise in traffic flow, which implies a greater number of minor scratches and dents, will contribute to that growth.
However, GMI states that the increase of technical complexities with the proliferation of ADAS in vehicles can represent a threat for some in the industry. “The requirement for highly qualified technicians, combined with high end tools and equipment to repair automobiles, can represent a challenge for the automotive repair market”, the consulting company highlights.
In this sense, for Global Market Insights (GMI), the increase in electronics and sensors in new vehicles results in a bigger need for the training of professionals and investments to manage more and more complex bodywork repairs. This, in a certain way, can limit the reach of small and independent businesses.
In particular in Europe, the market size of bodywork repair reached 98.000 million dollars (around 87.000 million euros) in 2017, due to, according to GMI, the increase in vehicle sales across the region. Meanwhile, the consulting company predicts that this market will reach a value of 112.000 million dollars (almost 100.000 million euros) from now until 2024, which means a 15% increase since 2017.
And what will contribute to this? According to GMI, the growing demand for paint and coatings in several countries will be responsible for the growth of this region until 2024. The growing need to replace plastic and metal damaged parts will contribute significantly to the generation of revenue.
Regarding the categories of vehicles, it is expected that passenger cars will dominate the market over these years (it represented around 45 % in 2017). Meanwhile, a significant increase in SUV and crossover preferences has been noted amongst clients.
In addition, an increase in the importance of light commercial vehicles (LCV) is expected for the bodywork repair market, due to the increase of its use in cities and rural areas for goods transportation. The proliferation of online shopping platforms, together with the rise of pick-up and home deliveries will support the increase in the market share of these vehicles and their visits to the bodywork and paint shops.
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